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dc.creatorMurray L., Christopher J
dc.creatorCallender H, Charlton S K
dc.creatorKulikoff, Xie Rachel
dc.creatorSrinivasan, Vinay
dc.creatorAbate, Degu
dc.creatorAbate, Kalkidan Hassen
dc.creatorAbay, Solomon M
dc.creatorAbbasi, Nooshin
dc.creatorAbbastabar, Hedayat
dc.creatorAlvis-Guzman, Nelson
dc.description.abstractBackground Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and
dc.description.abstractAntecedentes Las estimaciones de población sustentan la investigación demográfica y epidemiológica y se utilizan para realizar un seguimiento del progreso Sobre numerosos indicadores internacionales de salud y desarrollo. Hasta la fecha, las estimaciones disponibles internacionalmente de La población y la fertilidad, aunque útiles, no se han producido con métodos transparentes y replicables y no se han producido. Utilizar estimaciones estandarizadas de mortalidad. Presentamos estimaciones de fertilidad de un solo año calendario y de un solo año de edad. y población por sexo con métodos estandarizados y replicables. Métodos Estimamos la población en 195 ubicaciones por año de edad y año calendario de 1950 a 2017 Con métodos estandarizados y replicables. Basamos las estimaciones en la ecuación de equilibrio demográfico, con Insumos de fertilidad, mortalidad, población y migración. Los datos de fertilidad provienen de 7817 años de localización de vital datos de registro, 429 encuestas que informan historiales completos de nacimientos y 977 encuestas y censos que informan el resumen Historias de nacimiento. Estimamos las tasas de fertilidad específicas por edad (ASFR, por sus siglas en inglés; el número anual de nacimientos vivos de mujeres de un grupo de edad especificado por 1000 mujeres en ese grupo de edad) mediante el uso de regresión del proceso gaussiano espaciotemporal y se utiliza los ASFR para estimar las tasas de fertilidad total (TFR, el número promedio de hijos que una mujer tendría si sobreviviera hasta el final de la edad reproductiva [edad 10–54 años] y experimentó en cada edad un conjunto particular de ASFR observado en el año de interés). Debido a la escasez de datos, se estimó la fertilidad entre las edades de 10 a 14 años y de 50 a 54 años. a partir de datos sobre fertilidad en mujeres de 15 a 19 años y de 45 a 49 años, mediante el uso de regresión lineal. Edad específica los datos de mortalidad provienen de las estimaciones de 2017 de la Carga Global de Enfermedades, Lesiones y Factores de Riesgo (GBD). Datos sobre la población provino de 1257 censos y 761 años de registro de población y se ajustaron para La subenumeración y la edad de los informes con métodos demográficos estándar. La migración se estimó con la Modelo de equilibrio demográfico bayesiano de GBD, después de incorporar información sobre la migración de refugiados al modelo anterior. Las estimaciones de población finales utilizaron el método de cohorte de componente de proyección de la población, con insumos de fertilidad, mortalidad, y datos de migración. La incertidumbre de la población se estimó mediante el uso de pruebas de validez predictiva fuera de la muestra. Con estos datos, estimamos las tendencias en la población por edad y sexo y en la fertilidad por edad entre 1950 y 2017 en 195 países y
dc.publisherThe Lancetspa
dc.subjectDemográfica y epidemiológicaspa
dc.subjectIndicadores internacionales de salud y desarrollospa
dc.subjectPoblación y la fertilidadspa
dc.subjectDemographic and epidemiologicalspa
dc.subjectInternational health and development indicatorsspa
dc.subjectPopulation and fertilityspa
dc.titlePopulation and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017spa
dc.title.alternativePoblación y fecundidad por edad y sexo para 195 países y territorios, 1950-2017: un análisis sistemático para el Estudio de la carga mundial de la enfermedad 2017spa
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