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Cost-effectiveness analysis of strategies of Covid-19 vaccination in Colombia: comparison of high-risk prioritization and no prioritization strategies with the absence of a vaccination plan

Morales-Zamora, Gilberto; Espinosa Eco, Oscar; Puertas, Edwin; Fernández, Juan Carlos; Hernández, José; Zakzuk, Verónica; Cepeda, Magda; Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos; Paternina-Caicedo, Angel (Elsevier USAUnited States, 2022)

Objectives Our study compares two national COVID-19 vaccination plan strategies—high-risk prioritization and no prioritization—and estimates their cost-effectiveness compared with no vaccination, to generate possible ...
Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 COVID-19 mass vaccination in Colombia: a population-based cohort study

Paternina-Caicedo, Angel; Jit, Mark; Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson; Fernández, Juan Carlos; Hernández, José; Paz-Wilches, Justo Jesús; Rojas-suarez, Jose; Duenas-Castell, Carmelo; ALVIS-ZAKZUK, NELSON J.; Smith, Adrian D.; DE LA HOZ RESTREPO, FERNANDO (Elsevier Ltd.United Kingdom, 2022)

Background In February 2021, Colombia began mass vaccination against COVID-19 using mainly BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines. We aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) to prevent COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalization, ...
Impact of mobility restrictions on the dynamics of transmission of COVID-19 in Colombian cities

Paternina-Caicedo, Angel; Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson; Dueñas, Carmelo; Narvaez, Javier; Smith, Adrian D; DE LA HOZ RESTREPO, FERNANDO (Oxford University PressUnited Kingdom, 2022)

Our aim was to study the association between case rates and reductions in urban mobility in state capitals of Colombia. We designed an ecological time-series study to correlate the Colombian incidence rate with reductions ...

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Cost-effectiveness analysis of strategies of Covid-19 vaccination in Colombia: comparison of high-risk prioritization and no prioritization strategies with the absence of a vaccination plan
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Morales-Zamora, Gilberto | 2022

Objectives Our study compares two national COVID-19 vaccination plan strategies—high-risk prioritization and no prioritization—and estimates their cost-effectiveness compared with no vaccination, to generate possible recommendations for future vaccination plans. Methods We developed a Markov discrete-time, compartmental, deterministic model stratified by Colombian departments, healthcare workers, comorbidities, and age groups and calibrated to seroprevalence, cases, and deaths. The model simulates three scenarios: no vaccination, no prioritization of vaccination, and prioritization of high-risk population. The study presents the perspective of the health system of Colombia, including the direct health costs financed by the government and the direct health outcomes related to the infection. We measured symptomatic cases, deaths, and costs for each of the three scenarios from the start of the vaccination rollout to February 20, 2023. Results Both for the base-case and across multiple sensitivity analyses, the high-risk prioritization proves to be the most cost-effective of the considered strategies. An increment of US$255 million results in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$3339 per disability-adjusted life-year avoided. The simulations show that prioritization of high-risk population reduces symptomatic cases by 3.4% and deaths by 20.1% compared with no vaccination. The no-prioritization strategy is still cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$5223.66, but the sensitivity analysis the show potential risks of losing cost-effectiveness under the cost-effectiveness threshold (one gross domestic product per averted disability-adjusted life-year). Conclusions The high-risk prioritization strategy is consistently more cost-effective than the no-prioritization strategy across multiple scenarios. High-risk prioritization is the recommended strategy in low-resource settings to reduce the burden of disease.

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Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 COVID-19 mass vaccination in Colombia: a population-based cohort study
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Paternina-Caicedo, Angel | 2022

Background In February 2021, Colombia began mass vaccination against COVID-19 using mainly BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines. We aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) to prevent COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalization, critical care admission, and deaths in a cohort of 796,072 insured subjects older than 40 years in northern Colombia, a setting with a high SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We identified individuals vaccinated between March 1st of 2021 and August 15th of 2021. We included symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, critical care admissions, and deaths in patients with confirmed COVID-19 as main outcomes. We calculated VE for each outcome from the hazard ratio in Cox proportionally hazards regressions (adjusted by age, sex, place of residence, diabetes, human immunodeficiency virus, cancer, hypertension, tuberculosis, neurological diseases, and chronic renal disease), with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Findings A total of 719,735 insured participants of 40 and more years were followed. We found 21,545 laboratoryconfirmed symptomatic COVID-19 among unvaccinated population, along with 2874 hospitalizations, 1061 critical care admissions, and 1329 deaths, for a rate of 207.2 per million person-days, 27.1 per million person-days, 10.0 per million person-days, and 12.5 per million person-days, respectively. We found CoronaVac was not effective for any outcome in subjects above 80 years old; but for people 40-79 years of age, we found two doses of CoronaVac reduced hospitalization (33.1%; 95% CI, 14.5−47.7), critical care admission (47.2%; 95% CI, 18.5−65.8), and death (55.7%; 95% CI, 32.5−70.0). We found BNT162b2 was effective for all outcomes in the entire population of subjects above 40 years of age, significantly declining for subjects ≥80 years. Interpretation Two doses of either CoronaVac in population between 40 and 79 years of age, or BNT162b2 among vaccinated above 40 years old significantly reduced deaths of confirmed COVID-19 in a cohort of individuals from Colombia. Vaccine effectiveness for CoronaVac and BNT162b2 declined with increasing age. Funding UK National Institute for Health Research, the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Impact of mobility restrictions on the dynamics of transmission of COVID-19 in Colombian cities
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Paternina-Caicedo, Angel | 2022

Our aim was to study the association between case rates and reductions in urban mobility in state capitals of Colombia. We designed an ecological time-series study to correlate the Colombian incidence rate with reductions in mobility trends of retail stores. The meta-analysis of β coefficients describing the association between case rates and reductions in mobility trends of retail stores resulted in a mean estimate of 0.0637 (95% confidence interval 0.027 to 0.101; p<0.001) with nearly 100% heterogeneity. We recommend continuing to consider mobility restrictions when the number of cases starts to climb in each local jurisdiction.

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Browsing by Author "Paternina-Caicedo, Angel"

Cost-effectiveness analysis of strategies of Covid-19 vaccination in Colombia: comparison of high-risk prioritization and no prioritization strategies with the absence of a vaccination plan ﻿

Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 COVID-19 mass vaccination in Colombia: a population-based cohort study ﻿

Impact of mobility restrictions on the dynamics of transmission of COVID-19 in Colombian cities ﻿

Envíos recientes

Cost-effectiveness analysis of strategies of Covid-19 vaccination in Colombia: comparison of high-risk prioritization and no prioritization strategies with the absence of a vaccination plan

Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 COVID-19 mass vaccination in Colombia: a population-based cohort study

Impact of mobility restrictions on the dynamics of transmission of COVID-19 in Colombian cities

Cost-effectiveness analysis of strategies of Covid-19 vaccination in Colombia: comparison of high-risk prioritization and no prioritization strategies with the absence of a vaccination plan

Effectiveness of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 COVID-19 mass vaccination in Colombia: a population-based cohort study

Impact of mobility restrictions on the dynamics of transmission of COVID-19 in Colombian cities