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Universidad de la Costa, CUC. Calle 58 # 55 - 66. Barranquilla, Colombia. 336 22 00. repositorioredicuc@cuc.edu.co. Corporación Universidad de la Costa.

Determination of models of simple regression and multivariate analysis for the forecast of the electricity price in Colombia at 2030

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Determination of models of simple regression and multivariate analysis for the forecast of the electricity price in Colombia at 2030.pdf (1.283Mb)
Date
2018
Author
Hernández Bueno, Nelson Javier
Pinto Calderón, María De Los ángeles
Muñoz Maldonado, Yecid Alfonso
Ospino Castro, Adalberto Jose
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URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11323/1212

Abstract

The electricity price in Colombia responds to demographic, economic, climatic changes, among others, that generate uncertainty and therefore risks in the electric production. Considering that the decision-making process has a great importance in the electricity market and that the participation of generators in energy auctions is usually based on intuition and previous experience, the need to study the possible alternatives and methods that minimize the risks before deciding some important matter can be appreciate. In this article, the estimation of the behavior of electrical energy prices in Colombia at the year 2030 for different scenarios and there are propose the following scientific models: (1) Simple regression; (2) econometric model. As result are obtained forecasts for each model, identifying that the econometric model has the lowest margin of error compared to the historical data that considers the behavior of different variables for the forecast
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Universidad de la Costa, CUC

  • Calle 58 # 55 - 66. Barranquilla, Colombia

  • 336 22 00

  • repositorioredicuc@cuc.edu.co

Corporación Universidad de la Costa CUC, Personería Jurídica con Resolución No. 352 del 23 de abril de 1971 y reconocida como Universidad mediante resolución 3235 del 28 de marzo de 2012 expedida por el MEN. Institución de Educación Superior sujeta a inspección y vigilancia por el Ministerio de Educación Nacional.

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  • Universidad de la Costa
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  • Recuperador Primo

Universidad de la Costa CUC.
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