Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Mortalidad global, regional y nacional específica por edad y sexo por 282 causas de muerte en 195 países y territorios, 1980-2017: un análisis sistemático para el Estudio de la carga mundial de la enfermedad 2017
Date
2018
2018
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Abstract
Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation’s progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and causespecific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.
Referencias:
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Measuring and mapping the global burden of antimicrobial resistance. BMC Med 2018; 16: 78. 34 Fujita K, Shinomoto S, Rocha LE. Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict. Sci Rep 2017; 7: 15737. 35 Murray CJ, King G, Lopez AD, Tomijima N, Krug EG. Armed conflict as a public health problem. BMJ 2002; 324: 346–49. 36 Nkengasong JN, Maiyegun O, Moeti M. Establishing the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention: responding to Africa’s health threats. Lancet Glob Health 2017; 5: e246–47. 37 Blencowe H, Kancherla V, Moorthie S, Darlison MW, Modell B. Estimates of global and regional prevalence of neural tube defects for 2015: a systematic analysis. Ann NY Acad Sci 2018; 1414: 31–46. 38 WHO. Global action plan for the prevention and control of NCDs 2013–2020. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2013. 39 Tian M, Ajay V, Dunzhu D, et al. A cluster-randomized controlled trial of a simplified multifaceted management program for individuals at high cardiovascular risk (SimCard Trial) in rural Tibet, China, and Haryana, India. Circulation 2015; 132: 815–24. 40 Wirtz VJ, Hogerzeil HV, Gray AL, et al. Essential medicines for universal health coverage. Lancet 2017; 389: 403–76. 41 Wong JQ, Uy J, Haw NJL, et al. Priority setting for health service coverage decisions supported by public spending: experience from the Philippines. Health Syst Reform 2018; 4: 19–29. 42 British Columbia Coroner’s Service. Fentanyl-detected illicit drug overdose deaths January 1, 2012 to March 31, 2018. Burnaby, British Columbia: Office of the Chief Coroner, Ministry of Public Safety and Solicitor, 2018. 43 Mounteney J, Giraudon I, Denissov G, Griffiths P. Fentanyls: are we missing the signs? Highly potent and on the rise in Europe. Int J Drug Policy 2015; 26: 626–31. 44 Berterame S, Erthal J, Thomas J, et al. Use of and barriers to access to opioid analgesics: a worldwide, regional, and national study. Lancet 2016; 387: 1644–56. 45 Prekupec MP, Mansky PA, Baumann MH. Misuse of novel synthetic opioids: a deadly new trend. J Addict Med 2017; 11: 256. 46 Kickbusch I. Global health governance challenges 2016—are we ready? Int J Health Policy Manag 2016; 5: 349–53. 47 Reinhart K, Daniels R, Kissoon N, Machado FR, Schachter RD, Finfer S. Recognizing sepsis as a global health priority—a WHO resolution. N Engl J Med 2017; 377: 414–17. 48 Goldberg DS, McGee SJ. Pain as a global public health priority. BMC Public Health 2011; 11: 770. 49 Taylor AL. Addressing the global tragedy of needless pain: rethinking the United Nations single convention on narcotic drugs. J Law Med Ethics 2007; 35: 556–70, 511. 50 Chaudhary NK, Connolly J, Tison J, Solomon M, Elliott KR. Evaluation of NHTSA distracted driving high-visibility enforcement demonstration projects in California and Delaware. Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2015. 51 Wang SY, Li YH, Chi GB, et al. Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem. Lancet 2008; 372: 1765–73. 52 Plummer M, de Martel C, Vignat J, Ferlay J, Bray F, Franceschi S. Global burden of cancers attributable to infections in 2012: a synthetic analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2016; 4: e609–16. 53 Foreman K, Marquez N, Dolgert A, et al. Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories Lancet 2018; 392: 2052–90. 54 Goff DA, Kullar R, Goldstein EJC, et al. A global call from five countries to collaborate in antibiotic stewardship: united we succeed, divided we might fail. Lancet Infect Dis 2017; 17: e56–63. 55 Martyn CN, Pippard EC. Usefulness of mortality data in determining the geography and time trends of dementia. J Epidemiol Community Health 1988; 42: 134–37. 56 GBD 2015 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388: 1545–602. 57 Langa KM. Is the risk of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia declining? Alzheimers Res Ther 2015; 7: 34. 58 Brookmeyer R, Evans DA, Hebert L, et al. National estimates of the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease in the United States. Alzheimers Dement 2011; 7: 61–73. 59 Matthews FE, Arthur A, Barnes LE, et al. A two-decade comparison of prevalence of dementia in individuals aged 65 years and older from three geographical areas of England: results of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study I and II. Lancet 2013; 382: 1405–12. 60 Rocca WA, Petersen RC, Knopman DS, et al. Trends in the incidence and prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease, dementia, and cognitive impairment in the United States. Alzheimers Dement 2011; 7: 80–93. 61 Adewemimo A, Kalter HD, Perin J, Koffi AK, Quinley J, Black RE. Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview. PLoS One 2017; 12: e0178129. 62 Bray F, Colombet M, Mery L, et al, eds. Cancer incidence in five continents. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer, 2017. 63 Mahy M, Penazzato M, Ciaranello A, et al. Improving estimates of children living with HIV from the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model. AIDS 2017; 31: S13–22. 64 WHO. World malaria report 2017. WHO Global Malaria Programme. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2018. 65 WHO. Global hepatitis report, 2017. http://www.who.int/hepatitis/ publications/global-hepatitis-report2017/en/ (accessed June 30, 2018). 66 WHO. MCEE-WHO methods and data sources for child causes of death 2000–2015. Department of Evidence, Information and Research (WHO, Geneva) and Maternal Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE). February, 2018. http://www.who.int/healthinfo/ global_burden_disease/childcod_methods_2000_2016.pdf (accessed June 30, 2018). 67 Iuliano AD, Roguski KM, Chang HH, et al. Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study. Lancet 2018; 391: 1285–300. 68 WHO. Trends in maternal mortality: 1990–2015: estimates from WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, World Bank Group and the United Nations Population Division. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2015. 69 Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Ervik M, et al. GLOBOCAN 2012 v1.0: Estimated cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence worldwide in 2012. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer, 2017. 70 Manthey J, Probst C, Rylett M, Rehm J. National, regional and global mortality due to alcoholic cardiomyopathy in 2015. Heart 2018; published online March 13. DOI:10.1136/heartjnl-2017-312384. 71 WHO. Road safety: estimated number of road traffic deaths, 2013. http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/road_safety/ road_traffic_deaths/atlas.html (accessed April 2, 2018). 72 WHO. Falls. Jan 16, 2018. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/ factsheets/fs344/en/ (accessed March 31, 2018). 73 WHO. Suicide data. http://www.who.int/mental_health/prevention/ suicide/suicideprevent/en/ (accessed March 31, 2018). 74 Riley WJ, Beitsch LM, Parsons HM, Moran JW. Quality improvement in public health: where are we now? J Public Health Manag Pract 2010; 16: 1–2
1 Alter GC, Carmichael AG. Classifying the dead: toward a history of the registration of causes of death. J Hist Med Allied Sci 1999; 54: 114–32. 2 WHO. Family of international classifications. June 18, 2018. http://www.who.int/classifications/icd/en/ (accessed June 30, 2018). 3 AbouZahr C, De Savigny D, Mikkelsen L, et al. Civil registration and vital statistics: progress in the data revolution for counting and accountability. Lancet 2015; 386: 1373–85. 4 Dwyer-Lindgren L, Bertozzi-Villa A, Stubbs RW, et al. Trends and patterns of geographic variation in mortality from substance use disorders and intentional injuries among US counties, 1980–2014. JAMA 2018; 319: 1013–23. 5 Shkolnikov V, McKee M, Leon DA. Changes in life expectancy in Russia in the mid-1990s. Lancet 2001; 357: 917–21. 6 Mokdad AH. Intentional injuries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study. Int J Public Health 2017; 63: 1–8. 7 Lefeuvre D, Pavillon G, Aouba A, et al. Quality comparison of electronic versus paper death certificates in France, 2010. Popul Health Metr 2014; 12: 3. 8 Bancroft EA, Lee S. Use of electronic death certificates for influenza death surveillance. Emerg Infect Dis 2014; 20: 78. 9 WHO. SDG 3: ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages. http://www.who.int/sdg/targets/en/ (accessed March 31, 2018). 10 WHO. Moscow Declaration to end TB. November, 2017. http://www.who.int/tb/features_archive/Online_Consultation_ MinisterialConferenceDeclaration/en/ (accessed March 31, 2018). 11 WHO. WHO’s First Global Conference on Air Pollution and Health, 30 October – 1 November 2018. http://www.who.int/ airpollution/events/conference/en/ (accessed March 31, 2018). 12 WHO. Noncommunicable diseases and their risk factors. Third UN high-level meeting on NCDs (2018). http://www.who.int/ncds/ governance/third-un-meeting/about/en/ (accessed June 30, 2018). 13 WHO. UN General Assembly high-level meeting on ending TB. Tuberculosis. http://www.who.int/tb/features_archive/UNGA_ HLM_ending_TB/en/ (accessed June 30, 2018). 14 GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1995–2051. 15 Stevens GA, Alkema L, Black RE, et al. Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement. Lancet 2016; 388: e19–23. 16 Naghavi M, Makela S, Foreman K, O’Brien J, Pourmalek F, Lozano R. Algorithms for enhancing public health utility of national causes-of-death data. Popul Health Metr 2010; 8: 9. 17 Janssen F, Kunst AE. ICD coding changes and discontinuities in trends in cause-specific mortality in six European countries, 1950–99. Bull World Health Organ 2004; 82: 904–13. 18 GBD 2016 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. Lancet 2017; 390: 1151–210. 19 Kotloff KL, Blackwelder WC, Nasrin D, et al. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) of diarrheal disease in infants and young children in developing countries: epidemiologic and clinical methods of the case/control study. Clin Infect Dis 2012; 55: S232–45. 20 Das Gupta P. Standardization and decomposition of rates: a user’s manual. 1993. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/ library/publications/1993/demo/p23-186.pdf (accessed Sept 13, 2018). 21 Flaxman AD, Vos T, Murray CJ. An integrative metaregression framework for descriptive epidemiology. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2015. 22 GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1684–735. 23 GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1923–94. 24 GBD 2015 Obesity Collaborators. Health effects of overweight and obesity in 195 countries over 25 years. N Engl J Med 2017; 377: 13–27. 25 Younossi Z, Anstee QM, Marietti M, et al. Global burden of NAFLD and NASH: trends, predictions, risk factors and prevention. Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol 2018; 15: 11. 26 Swinburn BA, Sacks G, Hall KD, et al. The global obesity pandemic: shaped by global drivers and local environments. Lancet 2011; 378: 804–14. 27 Roth GA, Nguyen G, Forouzanfar MH, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Murray CJ. Estimates of global and regional premature cardiovascular mortality in 2025. Circulation 2015; 132: 1270–82. 28 Roberto CA, Swinburn B, Hawkes C, et al. Patchy progress on obesity prevention: emerging examples, entrenched barriers, and new thinking. Lancet 2015; 385: 2400–09. 29 WHO. Global nutrition policy review: what does it take to scale up nutrition action? Geneva: World Health Organization, 2013. 30 Fleming DM, Elliot AJ. Lessons from 40 years’ surveillance of influenza in England and Wales. Epidemiol Infect 2008; 136: 866–875. 31 Lessa FC, Mu Y, Bamberg WM, et al. Burden of Clostridium difficile infection in the United States. N Engl J Med 2015; 372: 825–34. 32 Van Boeckel TP, Gandra S, Ashok A, et al. Global antibiotic consumption 2000 to 2010: an analysis of national pharmaceutical sales data. Lancet Infect Dis 2014; 14: 742–50. 33 Hay SI, Rao PC, Dolecek C, et al. Measuring and mapping the global burden of antimicrobial resistance. BMC Med 2018; 16: 78. 34 Fujita K, Shinomoto S, Rocha LE. Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict. Sci Rep 2017; 7: 15737. 35 Murray CJ, King G, Lopez AD, Tomijima N, Krug EG. Armed conflict as a public health problem. BMJ 2002; 324: 346–49. 36 Nkengasong JN, Maiyegun O, Moeti M. Establishing the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention: responding to Africa’s health threats. Lancet Glob Health 2017; 5: e246–47. 37 Blencowe H, Kancherla V, Moorthie S, Darlison MW, Modell B. Estimates of global and regional prevalence of neural tube defects for 2015: a systematic analysis. Ann NY Acad Sci 2018; 1414: 31–46. 38 WHO. Global action plan for the prevention and control of NCDs 2013–2020. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2013. 39 Tian M, Ajay V, Dunzhu D, et al. A cluster-randomized controlled trial of a simplified multifaceted management program for individuals at high cardiovascular risk (SimCard Trial) in rural Tibet, China, and Haryana, India. Circulation 2015; 132: 815–24. 40 Wirtz VJ, Hogerzeil HV, Gray AL, et al. Essential medicines for universal health coverage. Lancet 2017; 389: 403–76. 41 Wong JQ, Uy J, Haw NJL, et al. Priority setting for health service coverage decisions supported by public spending: experience from the Philippines. Health Syst Reform 2018; 4: 19–29. 42 British Columbia Coroner’s Service. Fentanyl-detected illicit drug overdose deaths January 1, 2012 to March 31, 2018. Burnaby, British Columbia: Office of the Chief Coroner, Ministry of Public Safety and Solicitor, 2018. 43 Mounteney J, Giraudon I, Denissov G, Griffiths P. Fentanyls: are we missing the signs? Highly potent and on the rise in Europe. Int J Drug Policy 2015; 26: 626–31. 44 Berterame S, Erthal J, Thomas J, et al. Use of and barriers to access to opioid analgesics: a worldwide, regional, and national study. Lancet 2016; 387: 1644–56. 45 Prekupec MP, Mansky PA, Baumann MH. Misuse of novel synthetic opioids: a deadly new trend. J Addict Med 2017; 11: 256. 46 Kickbusch I. Global health governance challenges 2016—are we ready? Int J Health Policy Manag 2016; 5: 349–53. 47 Reinhart K, Daniels R, Kissoon N, Machado FR, Schachter RD, Finfer S. Recognizing sepsis as a global health priority—a WHO resolution. N Engl J Med 2017; 377: 414–17. 48 Goldberg DS, McGee SJ. Pain as a global public health priority. BMC Public Health 2011; 11: 770. 49 Taylor AL. Addressing the global tragedy of needless pain: rethinking the United Nations single convention on narcotic drugs. J Law Med Ethics 2007; 35: 556–70, 511. 50 Chaudhary NK, Connolly J, Tison J, Solomon M, Elliott KR. Evaluation of NHTSA distracted driving high-visibility enforcement demonstration projects in California and Delaware. Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, 2015. 51 Wang SY, Li YH, Chi GB, et al. Injury-related fatalities in China: an under-recognised public-health problem. Lancet 2008; 372: 1765–73. 52 Plummer M, de Martel C, Vignat J, Ferlay J, Bray F, Franceschi S. Global burden of cancers attributable to infections in 2012: a synthetic analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2016; 4: e609–16. 53 Foreman K, Marquez N, Dolgert A, et al. Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories Lancet 2018; 392: 2052–90. 54 Goff DA, Kullar R, Goldstein EJC, et al. A global call from five countries to collaborate in antibiotic stewardship: united we succeed, divided we might fail. Lancet Infect Dis 2017; 17: e56–63. 55 Martyn CN, Pippard EC. Usefulness of mortality data in determining the geography and time trends of dementia. J Epidemiol Community Health 1988; 42: 134–37. 56 GBD 2015 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388: 1545–602. 57 Langa KM. Is the risk of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia declining? Alzheimers Res Ther 2015; 7: 34. 58 Brookmeyer R, Evans DA, Hebert L, et al. National estimates of the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease in the United States. Alzheimers Dement 2011; 7: 61–73. 59 Matthews FE, Arthur A, Barnes LE, et al. A two-decade comparison of prevalence of dementia in individuals aged 65 years and older from three geographical areas of England: results of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study I and II. Lancet 2013; 382: 1405–12. 60 Rocca WA, Petersen RC, Knopman DS, et al. Trends in the incidence and prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease, dementia, and cognitive impairment in the United States. Alzheimers Dement 2011; 7: 80–93. 61 Adewemimo A, Kalter HD, Perin J, Koffi AK, Quinley J, Black RE. Direct estimates of cause-specific mortality fractions and rates of under-five deaths in the northern and southern regions of Nigeria by verbal autopsy interview. PLoS One 2017; 12: e0178129. 62 Bray F, Colombet M, Mery L, et al, eds. Cancer incidence in five continents. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer, 2017. 63 Mahy M, Penazzato M, Ciaranello A, et al. Improving estimates of children living with HIV from the Spectrum AIDS Impact Model. AIDS 2017; 31: S13–22. 64 WHO. World malaria report 2017. WHO Global Malaria Programme. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2018. 65 WHO. Global hepatitis report, 2017. http://www.who.int/hepatitis/ publications/global-hepatitis-report2017/en/ (accessed June 30, 2018). 66 WHO. MCEE-WHO methods and data sources for child causes of death 2000–2015. Department of Evidence, Information and Research (WHO, Geneva) and Maternal Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE). February, 2018. http://www.who.int/healthinfo/ global_burden_disease/childcod_methods_2000_2016.pdf (accessed June 30, 2018). 67 Iuliano AD, Roguski KM, Chang HH, et al. Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study. Lancet 2018; 391: 1285–300. 68 WHO. Trends in maternal mortality: 1990–2015: estimates from WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, World Bank Group and the United Nations Population Division. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2015. 69 Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Ervik M, et al. GLOBOCAN 2012 v1.0: Estimated cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence worldwide in 2012. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer, 2017. 70 Manthey J, Probst C, Rylett M, Rehm J. National, regional and global mortality due to alcoholic cardiomyopathy in 2015. Heart 2018; published online March 13. DOI:10.1136/heartjnl-2017-312384. 71 WHO. Road safety: estimated number of road traffic deaths, 2013. http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/road_safety/ road_traffic_deaths/atlas.html (accessed April 2, 2018). 72 WHO. Falls. Jan 16, 2018. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/ factsheets/fs344/en/ (accessed March 31, 2018). 73 WHO. Suicide data. http://www.who.int/mental_health/prevention/ suicide/suicideprevent/en/ (accessed March 31, 2018). 74 Riley WJ, Beitsch LM, Parsons HM, Moran JW. Quality improvement in public health: where are we now? J Public Health Manag Pract 2010; 16: 1–2
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