Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Evaluación de riesgos comparativos a nivel mundial, regional y nacional de 84 riesgos de comportamiento, ambientales, ocupacionales y metabólicos, o grupos de riesgos para 195 países y territorios, 1990-2017: un análisis sistemático para el Estudio de la carga mundial de la enfermedad 2017
Date
2018
2018
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Abstract
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk– outcome associations
Referencias:
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1260–344. 5 Murray CJ, Lopez AD. On the comparable quantification of health risks: lessons from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Epidemiology 1999; 10: 594–605. 6 Stevens GA, Alkema L, Black RE, et al. Guidelines for accurate and transparent health estimates reporting: the GATHER statement. Lancet 2016; 388: e19–23. 7 Das Gupta P. Standardization and decomposition of rates: a user’s manual. Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce, 1993. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/ publications/1993/demo/p23-186.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 8 Rajagopalan S, Brook RD. Air pollution and type 2 diabetes: mechanistic insights. Diabetes 2012; 61: 3037–45. 9 Shaddick G, Thomas ML, Green A, et al. Data integration model for air quality: a hierarchical approach to the global estimation of exposures to ambient air pollution. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 2017; 67: 231–53. 10 Farvid MS, Ding M, Pan A, et al. Dietary linoleic acid and risk of coronary heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Circulation 2014; 130: 1568–78. 11 Yang WS, Va P, Bray F, et al. The role of pre-existing diabetes mellitus on hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and prognosis: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. PLoS One 2011; 6: e27326. 12 Rapsomaniki E, Timmis A, George J, et al. Blood pressure and incidence of twelve cardiovascular diseases: lifetime risks, healthy life-years lost, and age-specific associations in 1·25 million people. Lancet 2014; 383: 1899–911. 13 Murray-Kolb LE. CHERG iron report: maternal mortality, child mortality, perinatal mortality, child cognition, and estimates of prevalence of anemia due to iron deficiency. Baltimore: CHERG, 2012. http://cherg.org/publications/iron-report.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 14 Friedewald WT, Levy RI, Fredrickson DS. Estimation of the concentration of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in plasma, without use of the preparative ultracentrifuge. Clin Chem 1972; 18: 499–502. 15 Singh GM, Danaei G, Farzadfar F, et al. The age-specific quantitative effects of metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: a pooled analysis. PLoS One 2013; 8: e65174. 16 WHO. WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic 2017. Geneva: World Health Organization, July 19, 2017. http://www.who.int/ tobacco/global_report/2017/en/ (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 17 Abegunde DO, Mathers CD, Adam T, Ortegon M, Strong K. The burden and costs of chronic diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. Lancet 2007; 370: 1929–38. 18 Prabhakaran D, Anand S, Watkins D, et al. Cardiovascular, respiratory, and related disorders: key messages from disease control priorities. Lancet 2018; 391: 1224–36. 19 Tian M, Ajay VS, Dunzhu D, et al. A cluster-randomized controlled trial of a simplified multifaceted management program for individuals at high cardiovascular risk (SimCard Trial) in rural Tibet, China, and Haryana, India. Circulation 2015; 132: 815–24. 20 Webster R, Salam A, de Silva HA, et al. Fixed low-dose triple combination antihypertensive medication vs usual care for blood pressure control in patients with mild to moderate hypertension in Sri Lanka: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA 2018; 320: 566–79. 21 Yusuf S, Bosch J, Dagenais G, et al. Cholesterol lowering in intermediate-risk persons without cardiovascular disease. N Engl J Med 2016; 374: 2021–31. 22 Singh K, Chandrasekaran AM, Bhaumik S, et al. Cost-effectiveness of interventions to control cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus in South Asia: a systematic review. BMJ Open 2018; 8: e017809. 23 Frieden TR, Bloomberg MR. Saving an additional 100 million lives. Lancet 2018; 391: 709–12. 24 GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE collaborators. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1859–922. 25 Scott JG, Moore SE, Sly PD, Norman RE. Bullying in children and adolescents: a modifiable risk factor for mental illness. Aust NZ J Psychiatry 2014; 48: 209–12. 26 Moore SE, Norman RE, Suetani S, Thomas HJ, Sly PD, Scott JG. Consequences of bullying victimization in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review and meta-analysis. World J Psychiatry 2017; 7: 60–76. 27 Menesini E, Salmivalli C. Bullying in schools: the state of knowledge and effective interventions. Psychol Health Med 2017; 22 (suppl 1): 240–53. 28 Chaloupka FJ, Yurekli A, Fong GT. Tobacco taxes as a tobacco control strategy. Tob Control 2012; 21: 172–80. 29 Health Effects Institute. State of global air 2018. A special report on global exposure to air pollution and its disease burden. Boston: Health Effects Institute, 2018. https://www.stateofglobalair.org/ sites/default/files/soga-2018-report.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 30 WHO. Global and regional estimates of violence against women: prevalence and health effects of intimate partner violence and non-partner sexual violence. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2013. http://www.who.int/reproductivehealth/publications/ violence/9789241564625/en/ (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 31 WHO, UNICEF. Progress on drinking water, sanitation and hygiene. https://washdata.org/sites/default/files/documents/ reports/2018-01/JMP-2017-report-final.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 32 WHO, UNICEF. Joint Monitoring Programme methodology 2017 update and SDG baselines. https://washdata.org/sites/default/files/ documents/reports/2018-04/JMP-2017-update-methodology.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 33 Victora CG, Bahl R, Barros AJ, et al. Breastfeeding in the 21st century: epidemiology, mechanisms, and lifelong effect. Lancet 2016; 387: 475–90. 34 Fewtrell LJ, Prüss-Üstün A, Landrigan P, Ayuso-Mateos JL. Estimating the global burden of disease of mild mental retardation and cardiovascular diseases from environmental lead exposure. Environ Res 2004; 94: 120–33. 35 Bilano V, Gilmour S, Moffiet T, et al. Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990–2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO comprehensive information systems for tobacco control. Lancet 2015; 385: 966–76. 36 UNICEF, WHO, World Bank. Joint child malnutrition estimates— levels and trends (2017 edition). Geneva: World Health Organization, 2017. http://www.who.int/nutgrowthdb/estimates2016/en/ (accessed May 24, 2018). 37 Wardlaw TM, Blanc A, Zupan J, Åhman E. Low birthweight: country, regional and global estimates. New York: UNICEF, 2004. https://www.unicef.org/publications/files/low_birthweight_from_ EY.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 38 Hill NR, Fatoba ST, Oke JL, et al. Global prevalence of chronic kidney disease—a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS One 2016; 11: e0158765. 39 Blencowe H, Cousens S, Oestergaard MZ, et al. National, regional, and worldwide estimates of preterm birth rates in the year 2010 with time trends since 1990 for selected countries: a systematic analysis and implications. Lancet 2012; 379: 2162–72. 40 Petry N, Olofin I, Hurrell RF, et al. The proportion of anemia associated with iron deficiency in low, medium, and high human development index countries: a systematic analysis of national surveys. Nutrients 2016; 8: E693. 41 Steenland K. Excess deaths due to occupation. Occup Environ Med 2016; 73: 497–98. 42 Takala J, Hämäläinen P, Saarela KL, et al. Global estimates of the burden of injury and illness at work in 2012. J Occup Environ Hyg 2014; 11: 326–37. 43 Rushton L, Hutchings SJ, Fortunato L, et al. Occupational cancer burden in Great Britain. Br J Cancer 2012; 107 (suppl 1): S3–7. 44 American Institute for Cancer Research, World Cancer Research Fund. Food, nutrition, physical activity, and the prevention of cancer: a global perspective. Washington, DC: American Institute for Cancer Research, 2007. http://www.aicr.org/assets/docs/pdf/ reports/Second_Expert_Report.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 45 Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 2015; 386: 369–75.
1 GBD 2016 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1151–210. 2 GBD 2016 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1345–422. 3 GBD 2016 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1211–59. 4 GBD 2016 DALYs and HALE Collaborators. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390: 1260–344. 5 Murray CJ, Lopez AD. On the comparable quantification of health risks: lessons from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Epidemiology 1999; 10: 594–605. 6 Stevens GA, Alkema L, Black RE, et al. Guidelines for accurate and transparent health estimates reporting: the GATHER statement. Lancet 2016; 388: e19–23. 7 Das Gupta P. Standardization and decomposition of rates: a user’s manual. Washington, DC: US Department of Commerce, 1993. https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/ publications/1993/demo/p23-186.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 8 Rajagopalan S, Brook RD. Air pollution and type 2 diabetes: mechanistic insights. Diabetes 2012; 61: 3037–45. 9 Shaddick G, Thomas ML, Green A, et al. Data integration model for air quality: a hierarchical approach to the global estimation of exposures to ambient air pollution. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 2017; 67: 231–53. 10 Farvid MS, Ding M, Pan A, et al. Dietary linoleic acid and risk of coronary heart disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Circulation 2014; 130: 1568–78. 11 Yang WS, Va P, Bray F, et al. The role of pre-existing diabetes mellitus on hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence and prognosis: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. PLoS One 2011; 6: e27326. 12 Rapsomaniki E, Timmis A, George J, et al. Blood pressure and incidence of twelve cardiovascular diseases: lifetime risks, healthy life-years lost, and age-specific associations in 1·25 million people. Lancet 2014; 383: 1899–911. 13 Murray-Kolb LE. CHERG iron report: maternal mortality, child mortality, perinatal mortality, child cognition, and estimates of prevalence of anemia due to iron deficiency. Baltimore: CHERG, 2012. http://cherg.org/publications/iron-report.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 14 Friedewald WT, Levy RI, Fredrickson DS. Estimation of the concentration of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in plasma, without use of the preparative ultracentrifuge. Clin Chem 1972; 18: 499–502. 15 Singh GM, Danaei G, Farzadfar F, et al. The age-specific quantitative effects of metabolic risk factors on cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: a pooled analysis. PLoS One 2013; 8: e65174. 16 WHO. WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic 2017. Geneva: World Health Organization, July 19, 2017. http://www.who.int/ tobacco/global_report/2017/en/ (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 17 Abegunde DO, Mathers CD, Adam T, Ortegon M, Strong K. The burden and costs of chronic diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. Lancet 2007; 370: 1929–38. 18 Prabhakaran D, Anand S, Watkins D, et al. Cardiovascular, respiratory, and related disorders: key messages from disease control priorities. Lancet 2018; 391: 1224–36. 19 Tian M, Ajay VS, Dunzhu D, et al. A cluster-randomized controlled trial of a simplified multifaceted management program for individuals at high cardiovascular risk (SimCard Trial) in rural Tibet, China, and Haryana, India. Circulation 2015; 132: 815–24. 20 Webster R, Salam A, de Silva HA, et al. Fixed low-dose triple combination antihypertensive medication vs usual care for blood pressure control in patients with mild to moderate hypertension in Sri Lanka: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA 2018; 320: 566–79. 21 Yusuf S, Bosch J, Dagenais G, et al. Cholesterol lowering in intermediate-risk persons without cardiovascular disease. N Engl J Med 2016; 374: 2021–31. 22 Singh K, Chandrasekaran AM, Bhaumik S, et al. Cost-effectiveness of interventions to control cardiovascular diseases and diabetes mellitus in South Asia: a systematic review. BMJ Open 2018; 8: e017809. 23 Frieden TR, Bloomberg MR. Saving an additional 100 million lives. Lancet 2018; 391: 709–12. 24 GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE collaborators. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1859–922. 25 Scott JG, Moore SE, Sly PD, Norman RE. Bullying in children and adolescents: a modifiable risk factor for mental illness. Aust NZ J Psychiatry 2014; 48: 209–12. 26 Moore SE, Norman RE, Suetani S, Thomas HJ, Sly PD, Scott JG. Consequences of bullying victimization in childhood and adolescence: a systematic review and meta-analysis. World J Psychiatry 2017; 7: 60–76. 27 Menesini E, Salmivalli C. Bullying in schools: the state of knowledge and effective interventions. Psychol Health Med 2017; 22 (suppl 1): 240–53. 28 Chaloupka FJ, Yurekli A, Fong GT. Tobacco taxes as a tobacco control strategy. Tob Control 2012; 21: 172–80. 29 Health Effects Institute. State of global air 2018. A special report on global exposure to air pollution and its disease burden. Boston: Health Effects Institute, 2018. https://www.stateofglobalair.org/ sites/default/files/soga-2018-report.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 30 WHO. Global and regional estimates of violence against women: prevalence and health effects of intimate partner violence and non-partner sexual violence. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2013. http://www.who.int/reproductivehealth/publications/ violence/9789241564625/en/ (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 31 WHO, UNICEF. Progress on drinking water, sanitation and hygiene. https://washdata.org/sites/default/files/documents/ reports/2018-01/JMP-2017-report-final.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 32 WHO, UNICEF. Joint Monitoring Programme methodology 2017 update and SDG baselines. https://washdata.org/sites/default/files/ documents/reports/2018-04/JMP-2017-update-methodology.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 33 Victora CG, Bahl R, Barros AJ, et al. Breastfeeding in the 21st century: epidemiology, mechanisms, and lifelong effect. Lancet 2016; 387: 475–90. 34 Fewtrell LJ, Prüss-Üstün A, Landrigan P, Ayuso-Mateos JL. Estimating the global burden of disease of mild mental retardation and cardiovascular diseases from environmental lead exposure. Environ Res 2004; 94: 120–33. 35 Bilano V, Gilmour S, Moffiet T, et al. Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990–2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO comprehensive information systems for tobacco control. Lancet 2015; 385: 966–76. 36 UNICEF, WHO, World Bank. Joint child malnutrition estimates— levels and trends (2017 edition). Geneva: World Health Organization, 2017. http://www.who.int/nutgrowthdb/estimates2016/en/ (accessed May 24, 2018). 37 Wardlaw TM, Blanc A, Zupan J, Åhman E. Low birthweight: country, regional and global estimates. New York: UNICEF, 2004. https://www.unicef.org/publications/files/low_birthweight_from_ EY.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 38 Hill NR, Fatoba ST, Oke JL, et al. Global prevalence of chronic kidney disease—a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS One 2016; 11: e0158765. 39 Blencowe H, Cousens S, Oestergaard MZ, et al. National, regional, and worldwide estimates of preterm birth rates in the year 2010 with time trends since 1990 for selected countries: a systematic analysis and implications. Lancet 2012; 379: 2162–72. 40 Petry N, Olofin I, Hurrell RF, et al. The proportion of anemia associated with iron deficiency in low, medium, and high human development index countries: a systematic analysis of national surveys. Nutrients 2016; 8: E693. 41 Steenland K. Excess deaths due to occupation. Occup Environ Med 2016; 73: 497–98. 42 Takala J, Hämäläinen P, Saarela KL, et al. Global estimates of the burden of injury and illness at work in 2012. J Occup Environ Hyg 2014; 11: 326–37. 43 Rushton L, Hutchings SJ, Fortunato L, et al. Occupational cancer burden in Great Britain. Br J Cancer 2012; 107 (suppl 1): S3–7. 44 American Institute for Cancer Research, World Cancer Research Fund. Food, nutrition, physical activity, and the prevention of cancer: a global perspective. Washington, DC: American Institute for Cancer Research, 2007. http://www.aicr.org/assets/docs/pdf/ reports/Second_Expert_Report.pdf (accessed Aug 31, 2018). 45 Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. Lancet 2015; 386: 369–75.
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