Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Artículo de revista
2018
The Lancet
Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation’s
progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated
global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year
1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017
provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from
1980 to 2017.
Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey,
police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry
country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted
in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional
countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases
(ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by
redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools
developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and causespecific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions,
GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were
then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here
are age-standardised. Antecedentes Los objetivos de desarrollo global se basan cada vez más en estimaciones específicas de cada país para realizar una evaluación comparativa de
Progreso. Para satisfacer esta necesidad, el Estudio de la Carga Global de Enfermedades, Lesiones y Factores de Riesgo (GBD) 2016 se estima
mundial, regional, nacional y, para ubicaciones seleccionadas, la mortalidad subnacional por causa específica a partir del año
1980. Aquí presentamos una actualización de ese estudio, utilizando los nuevos datos disponibles y los métodos mejorados. GBD 2017
proporciona una evaluación completa de la mortalidad por causa específica para 282 causas en 195 países y territorios de
1980 a 2017.
Métodos La base de datos de causas de muerte está compuesta por registro vital (VR), autopsia verbal (VA), registro, encuesta,
Policía, y datos de vigilancia. GBD 2017 agregó diez estudios VA, 127 países-año de datos de RV, 502 registros de cáncer
país-año, y un país-año adicional de vigilancia. Se produjeron expansiones de la causa de muerte por GBD.
en 18 causas adicionales estimadas para GBD 2017. Los datos recientemente disponibles llevaron a estimaciones subnacionales para cinco
países: Etiopía, Irán, Nueva Zelanda, Noruega y Rusia. Muertes asignadas a la Clasificación Internacional de Enfermedades
Los códigos (ICD) para causas de muerte no específicas, inverosímiles o intermedias fueron reasignados a causas subyacentes por
Algoritmos de redistribución que fueron incorporados en la estimación de incertidumbre. Utilizamos herramientas de modelado estadístico.
desarrollado para GBD, incluido el modelo de Causa de muerte (CODEm), para generar fracciones de causa y tasas de mortalidad específicas para cada ubicación, año, edad y sexo. En lugar de utilizar estimaciones de la ONU como en versiones anteriores,
GBD 2017 estimó de forma independiente el tamaño de la población y la tasa de fertilidad para todas las ubicaciones. Años de vida perdidos (YLLs) fueron
luego se calcula como la suma de cada muerte multiplicada por la esperanza de vida estándar en cada edad. Todas las tarifas reportadas aquí
están estandarizados por edad.
- Artículos científicos [3120]
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